Excess deaths go negative

This is a hugely significant graph but we need to think very carefully before jumping to conclusions about what it means.

In the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic the number of excess deaths compared with five year averages for the relevant time of year significantly exceeded identified COVID deaths in Britain and nearly all other countries where it was possible to make a comparison,

This was probably partly due to an underestimate of the impact of COVID and partly due to indirect effects, for example people not going to hospital for fear of getting COVID and dying of conditions for which they would otherwise have gone and been successfully treated.

In the second wave this went into reverse in Britain and many other countries which publish reasonably accurate and honest statistics (not necessarily in those where "official" stats are an arm of state propaganda, see here for an example.)

This is harder to explain and may not represent the true long term picture but one part of the explanation is that measures taken against COVID-19 have not just reduced the number of people we lost to the Coronavirus itself but also saved lives which would otherwise have been lost to other diseases. For example, flu deaths have almost been wiped out this year. COVID may have killed some people who would otherwise have died of flu, measures taken against COVID almost certainly also saved the lives of some people who without those measures have died of flu.

It's important to appreciate that the data we have today do not give the whole picture of the impact that events which have already happened will ultimately cause. Even if we can get deaths from COVID down to minimal levels this summer and keep them there, we will be picking up the pieces from the pandemic for the better part of a decade in health terms - five years from now the indirect effects of the pandemic such as later diagnosis of cancer, heart disease and other conditions will still be causing deaths 

The ONS chart above shows total deaths, COVID deaths, and five year averages over the course of the pandemic to date and illustrates how excess deaths exceeded identified Coronavirus deaths in the first wave but were less than identified Coronavirus deaths in the second wave.

What is really interesting - and I will admit, surprising - is that in the last two weeks excess deaths appear to have gone negative.

I don't have an explanation for this and I think we need to be very careful not to leap to conclusions. I'm sure people will use this data to support all manner of previously held political theories and I'm equally sure that most of those people will be using it as the proverbial drunken man uses a lamp-post - for support rather than illumination.

There are still people dying around the world from COVID and as the saying goes, until we're all safe nobody is safe.

Further vaccination update

It turns out that when I had my vaccination yesterday I was one of well over half a million people in the UK who had a vaccination dose that day.

Here are the UK figures with a breakdown by the four constituent nations and first and second doses:

The number of people who've had at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine in the United Kingdom as of yesterday is 25,273,226.

The number of people who have had two doses is now 1,759,445 as of close of play 16th March. This is up 95,799 on the day before, the seven-day average number of second vaccinations per day is 72,156.

The people who have had both doses comprise 2.63% of the total UK population but is now starting to ramp up.

There is strong evidence from a whole range of peer-reviewed scientific studies that a single dose of either the Oxford/AstraZeneca or Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine dramatically reduces the risk of catching COVID-19 and even more dramatically reduces rates of hospital admissions and death, after four weeks. The evidence also shows that to get the maximum possible benefit from either vaccine we do need to make sure everyone gets their second dose.

Fewer than ten COVID-19 patients in North Cumbria's Hospitals

Two months ago the NHS in Cumbria was under enormous pressure. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that without enormous efforts, often well beyond the call of duty, by many of the doctors, nurses and other people working in our hospitals and NHS services, our health service might have collapsed.

What a difference those two months have made. Thanks to the hard work of the entire community, both in the NHS and other essential services, and the vast majority of people who have carefully observed social distancing rules, the virus is in retreat.

I am told informally by local NHS sources that there are now fewer that ten in-patients being treated for COVID-19 in North Cumbria's hospitals.

This is fantastic news and brings us closer to the day when we can safely end the lockdown and have our lives back. As does the progress of the vaccination programme: 25,273,226 people have now had at least one dose of an approved vaccine.

It's not quite time to break out the champagne. Forty percent of adult residents of the UK have now had at least one dose of an approved vaccine, but millions of us, including myself, who had it very recently still have to be careful because it takes several weeks after the jab before your immune system configures itself to provide the full protective benefit of the vaccine. And of course, although  more than 25 million people have had at least one dose, only about 1.76 million have had both doses.

Several of our continental neighbour countries look likely to be threatened by a third wave of the coronavirus: and until it is under control everywhere in the world, we must not be complacent.

Nevertheless every vaccination dose and every fall in the numbers of cases and hospitalisations moves us closer to the stage when we can leave lockdown behind and start rebuilding our lives.

Booking your COVID-19 vaccination

 The computer booking system for COVID vaccination jabs has been used successfully by vast numbers of people but I have had a bit of feedback - and experienced myself - that it does seem to produce perverse results occasionally.

When I booked my jab, the appointments which the online system offered seemed a bit off the wall. Rather than take the nearest appointment it offered, which was over an hours' drive away (which seemed a bit strange when I live within walking distance of a hospital which has been vaccinating people at a rate of knots) I tried the phone service. That worked perfectly and I can recommend it. 

When you reach the age to be offered a jab, try the online service first at www.nhs.uk/covid-vaccination.

If that doesn't work or offers you something which doesn't seem to be a good option - like an appointment in Ulverston when you live in Whitehaven, for instance - you can ring 119 between 7am and 11pm, seven days a week. I did this and spoke to a very helpful lady who was able to book appointments for my first jab this coming week and my second one in June, both in Workington.